Barley strengthens its position: the price has exceeded the level of wheat
The grain market continues to have multidirectional dynamics: wheat is getting cheaper, while barley continues to rise in price. According to Rusagrotrans, last week the price of wheat with 12.5% protein in deepwater ports was 16-16.2 thousand rubles/ton without VAT, which is 400 rubles lower than the level a week earlier. At the same time, barley was trading at 16-16.5 thousand rubles/ton — 50 rubles higher than a week earlier. ProZerno also records an increase: as of August 29, prices for feed wheat were about 11.8 thousand rubles/ton without VAT, and for feed barley — about 12.55 thousand rubles/ton without VAT. A year ago, the ratio was reversed: wheat is more expensive than barley.
Special attention of market participants is focused on the malting barley segment. In 2024, the harvest was estimated at 2 million tons, but this season, due to prolonged rains in a number of regions, harvesting is shifting, which increases the risk of a decrease in grain quality and a reduction in the final volume to 1.7 million tons. This prospect poses a threat of a shortage of raw materials and increases pressure on prices. Already over the year, the cost of malting barley has increased from 11.8 to 17.5 thousand rubles/ton without VAT (+48%).
Arkady Zlochevsky, President of the Russian Grain Union, notes that domestic demand is consistently high, and it is the brewing industry that is becoming a key factor in the growth of competition for raw materials. “Domestic demand is clearly felt, it is not covered by the availability of resources, so prices for barley are quite strong and growing,” he stressed in an interview with Agroinvestor.
According to analysts’ forecasts, the gross harvest of barley this season will amount to 19-20 million tons against less than 17 million tons a year earlier. However, the expected crop growth is unlikely to lead to lower prices: weather risks and a possible shortage of malting barley will keep prices at a high level.
