The gross harvest of grain and leguminous crops in Russia in 2025 may increase by 6% compared to last season

Russia’s gross harvest of grains and legumes in 2025 may reach 133.6–135.5 million tons, including new regions, according to materials from the Ministry of Agriculture. The main driver of growth is the low base effect: in 2024, the harvest fell by 13.8%. The increase is provided mainly by higher yields despite a reduction in sown areas in most regions, with the exception of the southern ones. Wheat production is forecast at 85.4–85.8 million tons, which is 3.4–3.9% higher than last year’s result and significantly better than early-year expectations.

The forecast for barley production in 2025 has been raised by 1.6% to 17.4 million tons, due to higher-than-expected yields in Central Russia and the Volga region. This includes malting barley production, which may reach 1.75 million tons, an important indicator for malt producers and the brewing industry.

Stronger growth is expected in the oilseeds segment, where the harvest of sunflower, rapeseed, and soybeans may increase by 11.2% to 31.6 million tons, with an additional 1.5 million tons in the new regions. Soybeans will show the largest growth, up to 8 million tons (+12.7%). Sunflower output is expected to rise to 17.9 million tons (+5.9%), and rapeseed to 5.2 million tons (+10.6%). The expansion of sown areas has provided an additional boost: sunflower acreage increased by 13.2%, rapeseed by 8.6%, and soybeans by 10.2%. This will allow vegetable oil production to grow to 7.4 million tons (+5%), according to the Ministry of Agriculture.

Against the backdrop of rising yields, difficulties with grain exports persist. According to the Russian Grain Union, 3 million tons were exported in July, and 4.5 million tons in the first 20 days of August. However, total export volumes remain only 60% of last year’s level. Despite the reduction of the export duty to zero and other support measures, the strong ruble remains the key constraint: for exports to be profitable, the exchange rate needs to exceed 90 rubles per U.S. dollar. At the current rate, exporters’ revenues in rubles are shrinking while costs continue to rise, forcing farmers to hold back grain in anticipation of more favorable market conditions, according to IKAR.

The Ministry of Agriculture does not plan to fully abandon the duty mechanism: starting August 27, the rate will be a symbolic 32.1 rubles per ton. Thus, the outlook for the 2025 harvest looks positive, but the high volatility of the currency market and limited export support tools leave the profitability of certain crops in question.