Forecast of the Russian barley harvest for 2025: increased yields, decreased acreage and the impact of weather conditions

The gross harvest of barley in 2025, with an increase in yield by 7.7% (to ~25.9 c/ha) according to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation and the preservation of acreage in 2024, may reach 17.9 mln tons, taking into account a 4.5% reduction in acreage in 2025 (according to Statbeer.com ) the barley harvest is estimated at 17.1 mln tons in 2024 This year, the area under cultivation of malting barley was about 6.9 mln hectares. With an average yield of 24 c/ha, the gross harvest reached 16.7 mln tons.

According to industry experts, the harvest of malting barley accounts for 10 to 15% of the total gross yield, while the remaining volumes are used for feed.

In general, the forecast for malting barley in Russia is 2.38 million tons. This is about 13% of the total Russian barley harvest, which is usually in the range of 17-19 million tons. With a 4.5% reduction in acreage, the figure drops to ~2.27 million tons, which is equivalent to ~12.6% of the gross harvest.
When calculating the forecast, adverse weather conditions, which significantly affect the quality of barley, were not taken into account. In 2025, due to heavy rainfall in the central regions, the grain quality of malting barley may decrease and the proportion of feed barley may increase, and a delay in harvesting will lead to additional costs and losses.
Taking into account the adverse weather conditions and the abundance of precipitation in most regions of barley cultivation, a decrease in the volume of malting barley is expected by 20-30% from the expected 2.38 million tons to 1.7 million tons. Experts note a low incidence rate, which indicates a high risk of reduced germination capacity. There is a high moisture content of grain with signs of fusarium grains.

Data from the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation for August 13, 2025 confirm Statbeer’s May forecast for malting barley yields.