Grain export quotas: new measures to protect the domestic market

The Russian government has set a tariff quota for grain exports outside the EAEU, which will be effective from February 15 to June 30, 2025. For wheat and meslin, the quota will amount to 10.6 million tons, and for barley, rye and corn, exports are completely prohibited. An exception is made only for supplies related to international humanitarian aid by government decisions.

This decision is aimed at maintaining the balance of grain production and consumption in the country, ensuring stable prices and food security. The distribution of quotas is entrusted to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation. Similar restrictions have been in effect since 2021, when quotas began to be set annually for the period from February 15 to June 30.

The ban on the export of barley has become especially relevant in the current market situation, when the price of a new crop of barley has increased from 12 to 16 thousand rubles per ton over the past five months, excluding VAT – an increase of more than 30%. This is due to limited supply: according to our data, in 2025 the volume of malting barley will amount to about 2 million tons with a total demand of 2.22 million tons. A lack of quality supply can lead to further price increases.

The restrictive measures taken will allow to preserve the volume of malting barley within the country, excluding its export abroad under the guise of feed, which happened in previous years. This is especially important for providing raw materials to the domestic brewing industry, which is under pressure from rising ingredient prices and the unwillingness of retail chains to review pricing policies.