Russia has increased its forecast for barley exports

The forecast of Russian barley exports for 2024 has been raised by the SovEcon analytical center from 2.4 million tons to 2.6 million tons. The main driver of growth was a twofold increase in purchases of barley by China, which imported 681 thousand tons of Russian barley over the year. In addition, Russia remains the only supplier of buckwheat to China and ranks second in oat exports.

Demand for barley is also growing in neighboring countries: in Kazakhstan, in 2024, problems with the quality of barley arose due to adverse weather conditions. Despite the high total yield, heavy rains had a negative impact on grain maturation. As a result, a significant part of barley has low quality characteristics, which is why a shortage of malting barley is expected, which will create prerequisites for price growth in the domestic market of Kazakhstan.

Against the background of high demand, barley prices in Russia continue to grow – only in the last month the price rose by +7.1% reaching 15.1 thousand rubles per ton without VAT in the Central Federal District for a minimum batch of 400 tons. In three months, the price has risen by more than 18% (from 13.3 to 15.1 thousand rubles per ton).

The fall in the ruble’s exchange rate against the dollar makes barley exports more profitable, which may increase price pressure on the domestic market. Despite the imposed export customs duties (since October, the duty on the export of barley has risen from 0 to 1,166 rubles), producers and suppliers are trying to take advantage of favorable conditions in foreign markets, which may lead to an additional increase in prices for barley within the country. This situation adds complexity for domestic breweries, which are not able to quickly change the price of beer in sales channels at the same rate as the rise in price of raw materials.