Global Beer Market: Trends and Changes 2024–2026
Key findings on changes and trends in the global beer market based on data from BarthHaas, The Brewers of Europe, and Oxford Economics reports.
1. Global production is declining — and it’s affecting almost every region
Global beer production fell to 1,895.7 million hl in 2025, down ~1% (-14.3 million hl) from the 2024 figure (1,910 million hl). This is not a one-off event: EU production dropped from 344.284 million hl to 333.598 million hl in 2025 (-3.1%). Overall, production in Europe declined by -1.61%, from 518.184 million hl in 2024 to 509.831 million hl in 2025.
The decline is concentrated in the traditional “beer powers”:
— US: -9.6 million hl (over 5%) — the sharpest drop among all countries
— Germany: -4.7 million hl
— Poland: -2.5 million hl
— China: -2.3 million hl (still the world’s largest producer at 353.6 million hl)
At the same time, growth is observed in developing regions: Africa (+4.2 million hl, led by South Africa), South America (Brazil +3.7 million hl), and India (+2.3 million hl). This represents a genuine structural shift — growth is moving away from mature markets with aging populations in the West and toward Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
2. Non-alcoholic beer (NAB) — the main growth story
The theme of growth in the non-alcoholic beer segment appears consistently across all reports, with the following data:
Across the EU, volumes of non-alcoholic/low-alcohol beer grew by 5.87% over 2024–2025 and by 38.3% since 2020, reaching 8.2% of the EU beer market — roughly every 12th beer consumed. BarthHaas devotes the final section of its report specifically to non-alcoholic beer (NAB), citing growth of 85% in the US, 8% in Germany, and 150% in Ireland over 5 years.
The conclusion is that non-alcoholic beer is no longer a “niche substitute” — the trend is described as a shift “from abstinence to lifestyle,” driven by Gen Z consumer patterns, the “sober curious” movement in the US, and rapid growth in Asia. Brewers are now releasing non-alcoholic versions of craft styles (IPAs, stouts, seasonal beers) and local specialty varieties (Kölsch, smoked beer), not just pilsner.
3. Consolidation and reshuffling among industry leaders
The BarthHaas 2025/26 report records real M&A activity:
— Diageo continued divestitures — selling its stake in Guinness Ghana to Castel, and its stake in East African Breweries (Kenya/Tanzania) to Asahi, which is now present in Asia, Australia, Europe, and Africa.
— The Russian division of ABI/EFES now appears as an independent player in the top 40 (11th place), displacing the French Financière ACP.
— China’s Yanjing overtook France’s BGI/Groupe Castel, entering the global top 10.
— AB InBev retains its dominant position — 25.5% of global beer production; the top 10 brewers now control ~66,8% of global production, indicating continued industry consolidation.
4. Macroeconomic and geopolitical pressure compounds the industry’s structural problems
Unusually, the introductory section of the BarthHaas report speaks directly about geopolitical consequences: escalating conflicts (Ukraine, Israel–Iran, Gaza, Sudan) are cited as a cause of renewed energy price increases, which compound already-high costs for raw materials, labor, and compliance for hop growers — increasing margin pressure in an already oversaturated market.
5. The beer industry’s economic footprint remains significant despite falling volumes
The WBA/Oxford Economics report (2023 data, published February 2025) gives a sense of the industry’s scale: contribution to global GDP is $878 billion (0.8% of global GDP), while the brewing industry sources 86% of its raw materials locally — underscoring beer’s character as a geographically rooted, “hyperlocal” industry even amid global ownership consolidation. The Brewers of Europe report echoes this: about 10,000 European breweries, ~2 million jobs, ~€52 billion in value added — the sector is under pressure from declining volumes but remains economically significant.
Key takeaways
— The market has decoupled volume decline from economic/strategic significance. Beer production is shrinking in mature markets, but growth in the non-alcoholic segment (NAB), premiumization, and ongoing industry consolidation mean that the industry’s value and strategic importance are not declining at the same pace as volumes.
— The industry’s geographic center of gravity is shifting — from Europe/North America toward Africa, South/Central America, and parts of Asia (India) — both in production and, indirectly, in future consumption growth.
— Asian markets saw the largest data revision. At the same time, the actual 2024→2025 trend in Asia is also negative (-7.4 million hl): China (-2.3 million hl), Myanmar, Japan, Vietnam, and South Korea are all declining (each by more than 1 million hl), while India is growing (+2.3–3.4 million hl across both reporting periods).
— Africa is the only consistently growing major region in both reports.
+6.7% in 2023→2024 and +2.6% in 2024→2025. The driver is South Africa, with notable contributions from Nigeria, Angola, and Ethiopia.
Comparing both reports reveals not simply “a decline in the global beer market,” but a deepening divergence in trajectories: mature Western markets (Europe, North America, part of Asia) are steadily losing volume, while Africa and India continue to grow. The global total is balanced between these opposing forces.
It’s also worth highlighting the methodological fragility of the data: BarthHaas acknowledges growing difficulties in collecting comparable country-level statistics (BarthHaas 2025/26, “Beer Production 2024/2025” section), and the 2024 revision of 34.7 million hl represents almost 2% of the entire global market — a substantial amount for a “correction.”